Food-Water-Energy concerns in Kyrgyzstan, Possibility for Red Alert /Pavol Duris/

What is the current situation in the next few months in food-water-security concerns in Kyrgyzstan? What is the probability for crisis explosion? What are the main independent variables? Kyrgyzstan will be threaten within the follows months mostly due to last June riots, high international energy prices, poor weather during the winter in 2010, negative forecast weather outlook, consequences of the customs union, grain shortages and the current institutional situation in water-energy management.

Main reasons for my concerns with food-water-energy situation are connected with my own analyzes of results of the European Food and Safety Authority (EFSA) under World Food Program operations and the Emergency and Prevention System (EMPRES) of Food and Agricultural Organization (FAO) which are mentioning current situation in Kyrgyzstan. The variables, such as the impact of custom union headed by Russia, last year summer riots in Fergana valley, grain shortages mostly in Russia and Kazakhstan, water and energy policy management and very poor conditions in the Kyrgyz households (Tab. 1) are really vital for understanding of this topic.

These variables are shaped by external factors such as weather, situations on the international energy and food markets and measures taken by international organizations such as FAO, WFP, and UNDP. From my point of view these variables will be mostly forming situations in Kyrgyzstan in the next folloving months.

The Russia`s Customs Union has been creating certain difficulties for countries outside of this political project in relation to entering to the food markets of Kyrgyzstan. Traders will be threatened by these rules which cause an increase of food prices imported for Kyrgyzstan.

Last summer Russia, Ukraine and Kazakhstan suffered extensive drought, therefore there is a shortage of grain for sale on domestic nor international markets. These extremely serious wheat harvest shortfalls, following a record heat wave and drought, were the worst in those areas since modern records were first kept. (Sieff, 2010)

The Last year June riots swere connected with many negative aspects for the local households in Fergana valley, such as closing of Uzbek and Kazakh borders, damaging of farmers`s crops on the fields which caused really poor conditions for them there. We could observe that the local markets were closed and the farmes were unable to access seeds and fuels from abroad. Especially farmers from Jalalabad and Osh districts couldn`t properly take care of theirs soils. There was no second planting of crops in the year 2010. (Trilling, 2010)

Domestic situation in Kyrgyz households, especially in Jalabadad, Osh and Yssyk Khul, is very unstable and below basic human standards. Many international organizations such as FAO, WFP or UNDP are concerned about possible future development in the level of food security of the area. More than 27% of Kyrgyz households are food insecure and the highest prevalence is in Osh, Yssyk-Khul and Jalalabad oblast. (FAO, 2011). Jalalabad faces these facts: more than 37% poverty, 21% of drinking water comes from unsafe sources, and for 27% inhabitants is the first priority food and for 36% sercurity issues. Osh is the oblast with the highest level of displacement and housing destruction, 9% of drinking water comes from unsafe sources and there are realatively high poverty rates to approximately 38%. Lost of people fight with a high level of deprivation (level of deprivation in Osh is 9 and 6.9 Kyrgyzstan). 33% of population considers security as their main current problem and further 28% consider security as one of their main problems, hovewer they are willing to wait for the government to fix the problem. In Issyk-Khul oblast drinking water comes from unsafe source „only“ in 12% cases. There are also high levels of extreme deprivation of people (7.8 in Issyk-Khul and 6.9 at national level). 54% of population considers security as their main current problem and further 33% consider security as one of their main problems, however they are willing to wait for the government to fix the problem. These aspects are connected with higher probalibility of disease and infections between people.

Water and energy mangement in Kyrgyzstan has suffered a lack of institutional foundation of responsible pro-ecological and sustainable development since the disintegration of the Soviet Union. There is a lack of political commitment and decision making power or authority on the key water managment issues in central Asia, failing of the donor community to full engage in preparation and implementatnion of water mangement project and many other difficulties. (Brorsen, 2008)

The final Kyrgyz vector will be oscillating according less predictalbe factors as weather condiditon, international energy and food prices and policy decisions made by international organizations. The weather condiditon outlook for this year looks is not as plausible as a lot of people would wish for. Main result will be seen on the conditions of Syrdarya water basin. It will be really important for Kyrgyzstan to monitor the amount of water in this river because more than 74.2% of water resources of Kyrgyzstan come from its basin. Therefore there are important precipitation forecast, the amount of glaciers in the montains and summer temperature. This is accompanied by steadily growing prices of grain on domestic and international markets.

The future impact on this issue will be problably eliminating by coordinate actions of international organizations and an possible bilateral actions with Kazakhstan or Russia. (depending on the impact of similar variables and factors on this situation)

Conclusion

The prospect for the situation in the central Asia, especially in Kyrgyzstan, are unfavorable in the area of food-water-energy concerns. The current situation in Kyrgyzstan is both chronic and contingent problem as it was previously mentioned by M. Fumagillis. (2008) I suppose that country will be threatened by securing basics vital demands for their citizens, probably fighting against increasing level of diseases and with securing basics aspects of running of the state apparatus. The possible red alert will arouse in Kyrgyzstan in the end of cropping term of this year and during winter 2011/12. This treat can undermine a fragile stability of political system in the country and probably creates possible cause for burning of the next ethnical clashes in Fergana valley.

Tab. 1

Mini dictionary

Food insecurity: a lack of producing of sufficient amount of food and insufificient cash to purchase diversified food.

Food securuity: indicator of country`s ability to ensure supply, affordability and saftety of food for its population and indicates (similar as barometer) the effectiveness of public institutions and legitimacy of governments. (Muzalevsky, 2011)

[1] FAHRE, R., G. KURBANOVA and DHUR, A. 2010. Special report FAO/WFP Crop and Food Security Assessment Mission to Kyrgyzstan. In: FAO.org, December 07, 2010. [on-line] http://www.fao.org/docrep/013/al970e/al970e00.htm
[2] FAO. 2011. EMPRES. In: Food and Agricultural Organization of UN. [on-line] http://www.fao.org/countries/55528/en/kgz/
[3] WFP. 2011. EFSA. In: World Food Program. [on-line] http://www.wfp.org/countries/kyrgyzstan
[4] Kyrgyzstan: Program Taza Suu for improvement of rural water supply and sanitation conditions. 2008. In: Global Water Partnership. [on-line] http://www.gwptoolbox.org/images/stories/cases/en/cs_360_kyrgyz_full.pdf
[5] FEWS NET. 2011. Central Asia Food Security Alert. In: Famine Early Warning Systems Network, USAID, February 04, 2011. [on-line] http://www.fews.net/docs/Publications/Central%20Asia%20FSA%20wheat%20prices.pdf
[6] THRILLING, D. 2010. Food Crisis Next Challenge for Kyrgyzstan? In: Eurasianet.org, July 29, 2010. [on-line] http://www.eurasianet.org/node/61637
[7] MUZALEVSKY, R. 2011. Food Security Problems in Central Asia Challenge Local Regimes. In: Jamestown Foundation, March 03, 2011, published at UNHCR website, April 15, 2011. [on-line ] http://www.unhcr.org/refworld/docid/4d8849092.html
[8] BRORSEN, P. W., SOKOLOV, V. and SHYUSKA, A. 2008. Transforming Water Conflicts in Central Asia. In: European Geosciences Union, General Assembly, Vol. 10. [on-line] http://meetings.copernicus.org/www.cosis.net/abstracts/EGU2008/08408/EGU2008-A-08408.pdf
[9] FUMAGALLI, M. 2008. The Food-energy-water nexus in central Asia: regional implications of and the international response to the crisis in Tajikistan. In: EU-Central Asia monitoring, No. 2, October, 2008. [on-line] www.fride.org/…/OP_The_food_energy_Central_Asia_ENG_oct08.pdf
[10] SIEFF, M. 2010. Kazakh grain prices expected to rise despite export cuts. In: Central Asia Newshire, November 03, 2010. [on-line] http://centralasianewswire.com/viewstory.aspx?id=2225
[11] Picture: http://www.flickr.com/photos/mcs50/3769023690/

 ilustračné foto: pixabay.com